April's cropping market update

Highlights for cropping

• All eyes are on the weather heading into a key period where conditions will shape the market. Dry conditions at home and crop risks in the Northern Hemisphere could see prices lift. A keen watch is for April and May rainfall to set up winter cropping. Any delays or crop stress abroad will add more fuel to the market.
• Barley and canola exports are running well ahead of pace, helped by strong early-season shipments. This factor, combined with robust domestic demand, has kept both commodities well balanced in terms of carryout at the end of the season, supporting prices throughout the season. Wheat on the other hand is lagging, with China mostly absent from the market. China’s appetite for wheat imports remains soft, held back by large domestic supplies and soft quota limits. If export volumes stay low, we could see a build-up in wheat stocks, pressuring prices into the new season.
• Recent grains market activity has been heavily influenced by factors unrelated to supply and demand – most notably, the Trump administration’s reintroduction of tariffs. While these trade tensions are expected to shift global trade flows over time, the extent to which they will impact overall demand remains uncertain.

Rod Baker

Agricultural Analyst

Rod is our Insights specialist for the cropping industry, combining a diverse agricultural background with an Environmental Science degree to deliver expert commentary on commodity markets and trends.